12 years a slave 1

Best Picture
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Inside Llewyn Davis
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

I’d say that this list will transfer, for the most part, over to the Oscars.  However, we have not had 10-nominee Best Picture lineup since the Oscars revised their system so we can assume that someone is going to be left off here.  I’d say the two most vulnerable contenders are Dallas Buyers Club and Saving Mr. Banks.  The former scored an unexpected ensemble nomination at the Screen Actors Guild last week when no one was considering it for this category.  Saving Mr. Banks, however, had the exact opposite scenario happen.  Everyone thought it would be one of the prime Best Picture nominees, but totally missed out at SAG and the Golden Globes outside of the predicable Emma Thompson nomination.  Will both films be left off Oscar’s list and be replaced by one of the two of the other SAG ensemble nominees, Lee Daniels’ The Butler or August: Osage County?  I’d say that the winner here is probably going to be a battle between 12 Years A Slave and Gravity, but I am giving the edge to the former at this present time.  McQueen’s film is the leader in the nomination tally here (not counting all of the Action/Comedy/etc categories, or else American Hustle ties it) with 13 nominations, including being nominated in all of the major categories outside of Supporting Actress.  I’d say 12 Years A Slave is currently in the frontrunner position at the Oscars as well, even if  Cuarón is taking most of the Director statuettes.  

Best Director
Alfonso Cuarón – Gravity
Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips
Spike Jonze – Her
Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell – American Hustle
Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street

I believe that Cuarón, McQueen, and Russell are on their way to Oscar nominations.  While Scorsese definitely needed this nomination, it does not seem that The Wolf of Wall Street is as loved as many had hoped (or has not been seen) so I think outside of Picture, Screenplay, and a few technical nods, it is going to be tough for this film to make it’s mark elsewhere.  I believe Jonze, Greengrass, and Nebraska‘s Alexander Payne are going to be fighting for those last two spots.  This will most likely go to Cuarón since he has been cleaning up on the awards circuit the past few weeks.

Best Actor
Christian Bale – American Hustle
Bruce Dern – Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford – All Is Lost

This may be the nail in the coffin for Leo after he was also snubbed by the Screen Actors Guild.  He still has a chance because I don’t believe Bale is going to make it to the Oscars, but the other 5 contenders seem to be locked and loaded even if Redford and Hanks seem vulnerable.

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock – Gravity
Judi Dench – Philomena
Brie Larson – Short Term 12
Meryl Streep – August: Osage County
Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks

YES BRIE LARSON!  Whew.  I’m ecstatic that she has been recognized by a major group that is not limited in their choices of who to nominate (i.e. the Spirit Awards and Gothams only nominate independent films).  Short Term 12 is one of the most honest films of the year and hinges on her performance.  Unfortunately, I think she is the weakest link here and the other 5 women are probably on their way to nominations.  Hopefully we will see someone else fall out so that Larson could squeak in.  I believe this will be one of the many major prizes that Cate Blanchett wins this season for her shattering work in Blue Jasmine, Woody Allen’s fusion of A Streetcar Named Desire and the white-collar Bernie Madoff scandal.

Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl – Rush
Bradley Cooper – American Hustle
Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave
James Gandolfini – Enough Said
Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club

Barkhad Abdi and Daniel Bruhl seemed dead in the water last week after being dissed by most of the regional critic groups along with their films.  However, they both scored nominations from the Globes, SAG, and now here and look like major contenders along with Leto and Fassbender.  I believe the final spot will be a fight between Gandolfini (if they want to go sentimental) and Cooper (if American Hustle really takes off).  It looks like the Jonah Hill prediction is not coming to fruition in the slightest.  As with the rest of the season, this looks like Jared Leto’s to lose at this point.

Best Supporting Actress
Scarlett Johansson – Her
Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts – August: Osage County
June Squibb – Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels’ The Butler

This is probably going to be the shortlist after Scarlett Johansson is taken out of the mix.  I don’t think the Academy is going to go for a vocal-only performance and, while I haven’t seen the film yet, I would agree with them.  It may be an inspired choice, but the fact remains that one of the greatest aspects of film acting are the performer’s gestures and the way they use their faces to convey their emotions, even if they are playing a computer.  I’d say that this will be a fight between Lupita and JLaw she she did not win their prize last year for Silver Linings Playbook.

Best Young Actor/Actress
Asa Butterfield – Ender’s Game
Adele Exarchopoulos – Blue Is the Warmest Color
Liam James – The Way Way Back
Sophie Nelisse – The Book Thief
Tye Sheridan – Mud

The only film that I have had a chance to see here is Mud and Sheridan was very good in it.  I think Exarchopoulos has this one in the bag based off of critical adoration.

Best Acting Ensemble
American Hustle
August: Osage County
Lee Daniels’ The Butler
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

The same nominees that SAG announced last week with the inclusion of The Wolf of Wall Street as well.  They will either go with most likely Best Picture winner of 12 Years A Slave or with American Hustle since the cast is so star-laden.

Best Original Screenplay
Eric Singer and David O. Russell – American Hustle
Woody Allen – Blue Jasmine
Spike Jonze – Her
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen – Inside Llewyn Davis
Bob Nelson – Nebraska

This looks like the list that Oscar will go with unless they attach to Saving Mr. Banks in a bigger way than these awards bodies have been.  I’d say this is down for Jonze’s Her and Russell’s American Hustle if they feel that either writer has been snubbed for too long.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Tracy Letts – August: Osage County
Richard Linklater & Julie Delpy & Ethan Hawke – Before Midnight
Billy Ray – Captain Phillips
Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope – Philomena
John Ridley – 12 Years a Slave
Terence Winter – The Wolf of Wall Street

I’d say this is a done deal for 12 Years A Slave.  The film is the Best Picture frontrunner, has won the majority of the Adapted Screenplay prizes at the regional critic awards, and clearly has the “important” factor.  I’d say they could go with The Wolf of Wall Street if they respect Terence Winter’s television work or Before Midnight if the critics rally for this film that they clearly love.  I’d say that Captain Phillips or August: Osage County have the biggest chance to get the shaft come Oscar time.

Best Cinematography
Emmanuel Lubezki – Gravity
Bruno Delbonnel – Inside Llewyn Davis
Phedon Papamichael – Nebraska
Roger Deakins – Prisoners
Sean Bobbitt – 12 Years a Slave

This list is my predicted list of contenders for the Cinematography Oscar even if many people think Nebraska is going to be left by the wayside.  I thought that the black-and-white stark photography was brilliant and really set the scene for the slowness of the Midwest.  While these films all look beautiful, there is not much competition outside of these contenders.  Her could make a showing if they go for the contemporary-style.

Best Art Direction
Andy Nicholson (Production Designer), Rosie Goodwin (Set Decorator) – Gravity
Catherine Martin (Production Designer), Beverley Dunn (Set Decorator) – The Great Gatsby
K.K. Barrett (Production Designer), Gene Serdena (Set Decorator) – Her
Dan Hennah (Production Designer), Ra Vincent (Set Decorator) – The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Adam Stockhausen (Production Designer), Alice Baker (Set Decorator) – 12 Years a Slave

The two that feel the most unstable right now are two of the prime Best Picture contenders, Gravity and Her.  The former has a very minimal set even if the interior and exterior of the spacecraft sets play an important part in the film.  I believe that the cinematography and the visual effects will be a more attractive choice come nomination morning.  In regards to the latter film, the Oscars very rarely go for contemporary films in this category.  I have a feeling that they will go with two very dissimilar 1960’s set films with Saving Mr. Banks and Inside Llewyn Davis.

Best Film Editing
Alan Baumgarten, Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers – American Hustle
Christopher Rouse – Captain Phillips
Alfonso Cuarón, Mark Sanger – Gravity
Daniel P. Hanley, Mike Hill – Rush
Joe Walker – 12 Years a Slave
Thelma Schoonmaker – The Wolf of Wall Street

I’d say that this will be our list and that the last spot will be a fight between Rush (if the Golden Globes nominations are any indicator) and The Wolf of Wall Street (if the Thelma Schoonmaker name makes an impact).  I’d say the win is between Gravity and Captain Phillips.  They will go with Gravity if they really go for the film an give it a slew of awardage, but Captain Phillips could make it’s mark here if they just want to throw it a bone somewhere.

Best Costume Design
Michael Wilkinson – American Hustle
Catherine Martin – The Great Gatsby
Bob Buck, Lesley Burkes-Harding, Ann Maskrey, Richard Taylor – The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Daniel Orlandi – Saving Mr. Banks
Patricia Norris – 12 Years a Slave

I’d say that this is a pretty accurate list when we are trying to figure out the Oscar nominations in this category.  I don’t think The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug is going to make a showing and it will probably replaced by either Inside Llewyn Davis or The Invisible Woman, a costume-heavy but overlooked film that this category typically embraces.

Best Makeup
American Hustle
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lee Daniels’ The Butler
12 Years a Slave

As we know from the recent Best Makeup & Hairstyling shortlist, the only film here that has a chance to make a showing at the Oscars is American Hustle.  However, I think that they will go with either 12 Years A Slave or The Hobbit sequel here.

Best Visual Effects
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
Pacific Rim
Star Trek into Darkness

This looks like a solid list and we all know who will be the winner come Oscar night..

Best Animated Film
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Monsters University
The Wind Rises

This could be the final list if they decide to go with mostly American, high box office films.  The one film that could make a shot for a nomination outside of this crew is the French film Ernest & Celestine, but that’s only if they decide to drop either The Croods or Despicable Me 2.  This will be a fight between Frozen and Miyazaki’s final film, The Wind Rises.

Best Action Film
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Iron Man 3
Lone Survivor
Star Trek into Darkness

They’ll either go with people’s choice of The Hunger Games or the Ron Howard sports drama Rush.  But seriously, where the hell is Gravity?  It is nominated in Sci-Fi/Horror Film, but Sandra Bullock is nominated for Best Action Actress?  I… I don’t know.

Best Actor in an Action Film
Henry Cavill – Man of Steel
Robert Downey Jr. – Iron Man 3
Brad Pitt – World War Z
Mark Wahlberg – Lone Survivor

What is this category?  What are any of these?  Why are the split up into such weird categories and a nomination tally that is not symmetrical with the rest of the categories?  I guess I’ll go with RDJ again.

Best Actress in an Action Film
Sandra Bullock – Gravity
Jennifer Lawrence – The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Evangeline Lilly – The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Gwyneth Paltrow – Iron Man 3

Same thing as the previous few categories, this is all so pointless.  They’re just starfucking at this point to get the actors to show up at the show.  This is Bullock’s to lose.

Best Comedy Film
American Hustle
Enough Said
The Heat
This Is the End
The Way Way Back
The World’s End

A decent list of comedy film this year, but yet again if these are such important films for them then why didn’t they include them in the Best Picture category.  Should that category just be called Best Drama Film?  Why did The Wolf of Wall Street get nominated for Best Picture and Best Actor in a Comedy, but not for Best Comedy Film?  This all makes no goddamn sense.  I guess this will probably be American Hustle by default.

Best Actor in a Comedy Film
Christian Bale – American Hustle
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street
James Gandolfini – Enough Said
Simon Pegg – The World’s End
Sam Rockwell – The Way Way Back

This will be a race between Bale and DiCaprio, but since Bale was nominated in the Best Actor category I guess he needs to be seen as the frontrunner here.

Best Actress in a Comedy Film
Amy Adams – American Hustle
Sandra Bullock – The Heat
Greta Gerwig – Frances Ha
Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Enough Said
Melissa McCarthy – The Heat

Oh, please give something to Greta Gerwig.  Frances Ha was so beautiful and realistic even if it was overly quirky and hip at times.  I guess this will go to Amy Adams since the film is the frontrunner in these Comedy categories.

Best Sci-Fi/Horror Film
The Conjuring
Star Trek into Darkness
World War Z

So this is obviously going to Gravity, but still… why wasn’t it nominated for Best Action Film if Bullock was nominated for Actress there?

Best Foreign Language Film
Blue is the Warmest Color
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
The Past

This will most likely be Blue is the Warmest Color‘s award even if that award cannot translate over to Oscar.  If they do decide to go with an Oscar contender, it will have to be considered Saudi Arabia’s Wadjda.

Best Documentary Feature
The Act of Killing
Stories We Tell
Tim’s Vermeer
20 Feet from Stardom

This will most likely go to one of the critical favorites in the documentary category, which are The Act of Killing or Sarah Polley’s Stories We Tell.  Blackfish still has to be considered a contender based off its box office and the hoopla surrounding it.

Best Song
“Atlas” – Coldplay – The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
“Happy” – Pharrell Williams – Despicable Me 2
“Let It Go” – Robert Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez – Frozen
“Ordinary Love” – U2 – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
“Please Mr. Kennedy” – Justin Timberlake/Oscar Isaac/Adam Driver – Inside Llewyn Davis
“Young and Beautiful” – Lana Del Rey – The Great Gatsby

I’d say that this will go to the Inside Llewyn Davis track even though it is not eligible at the Oscars.  It has been getting a lot of notice from critics and is considered one of the best songs in the film, but the issues are that it is an adapted song from numerous folk songs during the 1960’s.  The Oscar favorite right now is the song from Frozen so the critics may just follow that route here too.

Best Score
Steven Price – Gravity
Arcade Fire – Her
Thomas Newman – Saving Mr. Banks
Hans Zimmer – 12 Years a Slave

Why are there only 4 nominees here when there are 6 in almost every other category? This will probably go to 12 Years A Slave and eventually make its way to an Oscar win as well, but if people really rally behind Gravity outside of the direction, visual effects, and cinematography then this could be a great race.